2030: A Vision for the Future of Digital Commerce

Context of Digital Commerce over the Past Decade

Digital commerce has undergone a radical transformation in the last 10 years, driven by technological advancements such as artificial intelligence, machine learning and the rise of ecommerce. The traditional online transaction model has evolved into end-to-end, personalized customer experiences that are omnichannel and constantly evolving.

During this period, businesses have moved from focusing on internal optimisation to prioritising customer experience, seeking not only to meet but also to anticipate the needs and expectations of their consumers. This shift has made the fundamental principles of digital commerce—reliability, continuity, anticipation and solution-oriented—more relevant than ever.

Digital commerce isn’t just about adopting new technologies; it’s also a cultural transformation within organisations. The ability to offer solutions that address customer problems, while maintaining a relationship of trust and transparency, has been fundamental. The proliferation of digital platforms, access to massive data and the growing consumer preference for self-service experiences have redefined industry standards.

In this context, digital commerce in 2030 is shaping up to be an intersection between advanced technology, personalized experiences and a constant need for business adaptability. The following chart shows the key changes that will occur in business attributes:

Chart showing the journey to the future of commerce in 2023

Source: Gartner Five-Year Outlook, June 2024

This article explores the key trends that will define the future of digital commerce and the implications for businesses seeking to remain competitive.

Predicting Annual Strategic Changes up to 2030

The consultancy firm Gartner, specialised in information technology, has made a prediction of the main strategic changes that will occur year on year until 2030 in the e-commerce sector. 

Examples include:

In 2025, developers outside formal technology and development departments will represent at least 80% of the user base for technology and low-code/no-code tools (compared to 60% in 2021).

In 2026, 35% of all newly acquired or created apps will use digital twins. A digital twin is a digital replica of a physical object, person, system or process, contextualised in a digital version of its environment. They help organisations simulate real-world situations and their outcomes, ultimately enabling better decisions to be made. 

By 2027, 20% of B2B sales organisations will use customer digital twins to improve revenue and the customer experience.

In 2028, digital twins built using best-practice data analytics techniques will retain their value 50% longer than those created using current techniques. 

Also in 2028, there will be 15 billion connected products, with the potential to behave as customers. This means they will have the power to purchase services and supplies for themselves and their owners. 

By 2030, vendors will be seamlessly available in both B2C and B2B digital commerce, at the customer’s request. 

Automation based on conversational prompts will be part of everyday life, including in commerce.

And finally, in 2030, one-sixth of online shoppers (approximately 500 million consumers) will interact with businesses through virtual assistants acting as their representatives. Instead of a customer communicating directly with a business to make enquiries, resolve problems or make purchases, their “advocate chatbot” will do so on their behalf. This bot could be designed to understand the customer’s preferences, negotiate prices, compare options and even make purchases automatically.

Key Trends in Digital Commerce in 2030

As we move towards 2030, several trends will reshape how businesses interact with consumers. This will focus not only on technology implementation but also on a cultural shift within organisations to prioritise the customer and adaptability.

Customer Centricity

The customer will remain at the heart of business decisions in 2030. Organisations will focus on:

  • Practicing empathy: Customer empathy is a business strategy element that incorporates cognitive, emotional and compassionate empathy into the customer experience. It’s added at all touchpoints and all stages of the relationship. It allows organisations to balance the benefits the customer receives with corporate objectives. It also improves their ability to personalize products, services, processes and interactions. 

 

  • Removing friction: Businesses will use AI to create effortless experiences for the consumer. For example, there will be AI-enabled consultative selling tools that generate personalized and relevant interactions. Identifying friction points in the customer journey will allow eliminating them proactively, reducing the effort required to complete a purchase.

 

  • Privacy as a differentiator: According to a 2023 Gartner survey, it’s unlikely that 68% of consumers will accept websites, apps or operating systems tracking their online data. Given customer skepticism about how their data is collected, businesses will offer privacy self-management tools and transparency to build trust and encourage information sharing. This will include intuitive interfaces for customers to control how their data is used.

 

  • Integrated solutions: Organisations will move from selling individual products to offering complete solutions that solve specific customer problems. This approach will transform markets into ecosystems where suppliers collaborate to create added value.

The key will be understanding the customer in their entirety, using tools like digital twins to anticipate their needs and offer personalized solutions even before the customer requests them.

Omnichannel Connectivity

As we have explained in some of our recent articles, omnichannel and cross-platform experiences have become essential in today’s digital world. By 2030, commerce will have completed its transformation into a unified experience integrating physical and digital channels. Key advancements will include:

  • “Phygital” commerce: Experiences that combine digital and physical will be commonplace. Businesses will therefore need to ensure a consistent experience across all touchpoints. Technologies such as augmented reality will play a crucial role in this transition, allowing consumers to interact with products and services in entirely new ways. For example, live commerce allows consumers to see the product in motion digitally and interact with a human salesperson in real time. This example is mainly used for consumer goods, especially fashion and beauty, and has already been tried, with great success, in the Chinese market. 

 

  • Consistency across all channels: Businesses will unify market data, products, prices and inventories to ensure a uniform cross-platform experience, regardless of the interaction channel. For example, a customer will be able to start their purchase online, make enquiries in the physical store and complete the transaction from their smartphone without interruptions or inconsistencies. 

 

  • Immersive technologies: As mentioned in the first point, augmented and virtual reality-based solutions will enrich the shopping experience, allowing consumers to interact with products in simulated environments. These tools will also be used to train employees and optimize internal logistics. Technologies such as augmented reality apps will allow products to be tried virtually before purchasing them, creating a sense of trust and satisfaction.

 

Business Agility

The ability to adapt quickly is already essential in a competitive and constantly changing environment. The keys to maintaining this agility until 2030 will include:

  • Cross-departmental collaboration: Merged teams and flexible organizational structures will allow for rapid responses to market demands. The creation of collaborative teams, combining talent from various areas, will foster more efficient execution of digital initiatives. Adopting a 360º cross-departmental solution such as flipflow will help to unite all departments in your company and achieve close and strategic alignment.

 

  • Composable models: Modular technology solutions will allow companies to configure specific tools to solve particular problems. This will reduce implementation times and increase the ability to personalize processes according to customer needs.

 

  • Results-oriented leadership: Decisions will be driven by key indicators that will follow the central axis of all changes in digital commerce up to 2030: customer satisfaction. They will no longer focus exclusively on revenue. This paradigm shift will involve a redefinition of traditional KPIs. 

 

Intelligent Commerce

Artificial intelligence and machine learning will revolutionize how businesses operate and relate to consumers:

  • Personalized solutions: The rise of customer digital twins will allow needs to be anticipated and interactions to be personalized. These predictive models will integrate data from various sources to offer real-time recommendations. Generative AI will push personalization to unprecedented levels.

 

  • Advanced automation: Internal processes and customer interactions will become more efficient thanks to intelligent systems that automate and adapt experiences in real time. This will include advanced chatbots and AI-based inventory management systems.

 

  • Machine customers: Devices and bots will make purchasing decisions autonomously, expanding the scope of digital commerce. This trend will open up new opportunities for businesses that develop technologies geared towards this type of customer.

Trends for the future of digital commerce

Implications for Businesses

The future of digital commerce presents both opportunities and challenges for businesses. To make the most of these trends, organisations must be willing to reinvent themselves and adopt new strategies that allow them to remain relevant in an increasingly competitive environment by 2030. 

How to Prepare for These Changes

Businesses should take proactive steps to align themselves with the trends of 2030. Some recommendations include:

  • Adopting an agile mindset: Developing the ability to pivot quickly in response to market changes. This will involve investments in technology but also a cultural shift towards experimentation and continuous learning.

 

  • Investing in technology: Integrating Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning and Virtual Reality solutions, as well as composable tools, to improve the customer experience. The implementation of advanced automation technologies will allow operations to be scaled efficiently.

 

  • Focusing on privacy: Designing data management strategies that prioritize trust and transparency. This will include systems that allow customers to easily manage their privacy preferences.

 

Key Strategies for Adopting These Trends

To adopt emerging trends and maximize their impact, it is fundamental to implement effective strategies that align the organization with these new dynamics. These are some of the keys to achieving this:

  • Empower your team: Foster a customer-centric business culture and enable employees with technology to make decisions. Organisations should invest in ongoing training to keep up with the latest tools.

 

 

  • Collaborating with partners: Forming strategic alliances to develop integrated solutions that meet market needs. These collaborations will be key to overcoming technological and operational challenges.

 

Digital Commerce in 2030: Keys to Leading the Future

Digital commerce in 2030 will be defined by a combination of advanced technology, a customer-centric approach and a constant need for adaptability. Businesses that successfully integrate these trends into their strategies will be better positioned to thrive in an increasingly competitive global market.

However, success will depend not only on the adoption of new technologies, but also on the ability of organizations to transform their internal culture and prioritize innovation and collaboration. Ultimately, in the digital commerce of the future, it will not just be about selling products but about creating unique experiences that connect people with brands in meaningful and lasting ways.

For businesses, the path to 2030 will be a journey full of opportunities. Those that embrace change and commit to excellence in all aspects of their operation will be well-positioned to lead the next era of digital commerce.